銀行業(yè)是否處于窮途末路
It is more than seven years since the height of the financial crisis, but the run of disastrous banking news during the past few weeks has revived bad memories. Profit warnings, mass job cuts, share price plunges and defensive capital raisings have abounded.
全球金融危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期已過(guò)去7年多了，但過(guò)去幾周，一輪災(zāi)難性的銀行業(yè)消息喚醒了過(guò)去那些痛苦的回憶。盈利預(yù)警、大規(guī)模裁員、股價(jià)暴跌以及防御性融資，這樣的消息不絕于耳。
With the aftershocks of 2008 still hitting the global economy — and central banks in the US and UK shying away from normalising ultra-accommodative monetary policies — banks, formerly seen as the powerhouses of growth, are under pressure on every side. Regulation is piling up. Competitors are stealing business. And many lenders are shrinking fast. Is banking in terminal decline?
2008年金融危機(jī)的余波仍在影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)以及美國(guó)和英國(guó)央行(它們正回避超寬松貨幣政策的正�；�)，曾被視為增長(zhǎng)推動(dòng)力的銀行正面臨各方壓力。監(jiān)管力度在增強(qiáng)。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手正竊取業(yè)務(wù)。很多銀行正快速收縮規(guī)模。銀行業(yè)是否正處于窮途末路?
It is certainly in turmoil. Hit by challenging markets and onerous post-crisis regulation, bank profitability has been squeezed hard. Today, even JPMorgan Chase, the most profitable Wall Street bank on recent performance, generates a return on equity of just 12 per cent. That compares with the industry average of about 25 to 30 per cent pre-crisis.
銀行業(yè)肯定正處于動(dòng)蕩之中。受到具有挑戰(zhàn)性的市場(chǎng)以及危機(jī)過(guò)后嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管的影響，銀行利潤(rùn)率一直被嚴(yán)重?cái)D壓。如今，甚至連根據(jù)最近表現(xiàn)堪稱華爾街最賺錢銀行的摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)，也僅僅取得了12%的股本回報(bào)率。而危機(jī)之前的行業(yè)平均水平約為25%至30%。
A decade ago, investors would have slammed JPM’s chief executive Jamie Dimon for such a dismal return.
如果摩根大通10年前取得如此慘淡的回報(bào)率，投資者會(huì)狠狠抨擊該銀行的首席執(zhí)行官杰米戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)。
Goldman Sachs , another of the banks that has prospered relative to rivals, suffered a near 40 per cent slump in third-quarter net income. Goldman’s ROE is now just 7 per cent.
另一家較競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手表現(xiàn)較佳的銀行高盛(Goldman Sachs)第三季度凈利潤(rùn)下滑近40%，股本回報(bào)率目前僅為7%。
There are three simplistic schools of thought about what is going on. The first theory is that this is just a blip induced by excessive regulation; the second, that it is merely a return to normal after an exceptional pre-crisis boom; the third suggests the slow death of banking.
對(duì)于目前的銀行業(yè)狀況有三種簡(jiǎn)單看法。第一種看法是這只是由過(guò)度監(jiān)管引發(fā)的短暫現(xiàn)象;第二種是，這只不過(guò)是在危機(jī)前的超常繁榮后的常態(tài)回歸;第三種看法認(rèn)為銀行業(yè)正慢慢滅亡。
Many bankers see evidence of the first theory in Europe, where politicians and regulators have recently signalled a willingness to relax certain new rules, for example regarding the obligatory “ringfencing” of retail banking from riskier investment banking in the UK. “One of the things that European [policymakers] have done, which is quite damaging to the infrastructure, is reining back the European investment banks,” says Colm Kelleher, investment banking chief at Morgan Stanley.
很多銀行人士在歐洲看到了第一種看法的證據(jù)，在這里，政治人士和監(jiān)管者最近表示愿意放松某些新規(guī)，例如英國(guó)有關(guān)將零售銀行業(yè)強(qiáng)制性“圈護(hù)”起來(lái)、與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的投行業(yè)務(wù)隔離的規(guī)定。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)投行業(yè)務(wù)主管科爾姆凱勒爾(Colm Kelleher)表示：“歐洲(政策制定者)實(shí)行的對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施造成相當(dāng)大破壞的`一個(gè)舉措是，約束歐洲投資銀行。”
Other bankers cling to the second argument — that we are experiencing a return to normal. Sergio Ermotti , UBS chief executive, says: “When we look back to the mid-90s [and] over the last 15 years, we saw a lot of banks doing a me-too strategy, trying to be everything to everybody, changing their DNAs, doing things they weren’t equipped to do. [That] was the anomaly.”
還有一些銀行人士?jī)A向于第二種觀點(diǎn)：我們正經(jīng)歷常態(tài)回歸。瑞銀(UBS)首席執(zhí)行官塞爾吉奧埃爾默蒂(Sergio Ermotti)表示：“當(dāng)我們回顧上世紀(jì)90年代中期(以及)過(guò)去15年時(shí)，我們看到很多銀行在實(shí)行跟隨戰(zhàn)略(me-too strategy)，試圖為所有人提供無(wú)所不包的服務(wù)，改變銀行自己的DNA，做一些它們沒有能力做的事情。(這)不正常。”
UBS has probably gone further and faster than any other bank to focus on its strengths and ditch businesses that are no longer economic, cutting half its assets and a quarter of its staff since 2007.
在關(guān)注自身優(yōu)勢(shì)以及放棄不再具有經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的業(yè)務(wù)方面，瑞銀或許比其他銀行做的更多而且速度也更快，自2007年以來(lái)，瑞銀削減了一半的資產(chǎn)，裁員四分之一。
“The banking model is in many ways getting more like we’re turning the clock back to the early 1990s,” agrees Philipp Hildebrand, former head of the Swiss National Bank and now a senior executive at asset manager BlackRock. “When the history books are written, the aberration will not be the past crisis but the 15 years running up to 2007.”
“從很多角度來(lái)看，現(xiàn)在的銀行業(yè)模式更像是我們把時(shí)鐘撥回到上世紀(jì)90年代初，”瑞士央行(SNB)前行長(zhǎng)、現(xiàn)任資產(chǎn)管理公司貝萊德(BlackRock)高管的菲利普希爾德布蘭德(Philipp Hildebrand)認(rèn)為，“在撰寫歷史書時(shí)，作為反�，F(xiàn)象被寫入的將不是過(guò)去這次危機(jī)，而是2007年之前的15年。”
The third, and most extreme, thesis about the mayhem in banking — that much of the industry is now in terminal decline — is peddled by those who are challenging banks’ traditional ways of doing things.
對(duì)于銀行業(yè)亂象的第三種(也是最極端)的看法認(rèn)為，銀行業(yè)正大范圍走入窮途末路，這是由那些正挑戰(zhàn)傳統(tǒng)銀行業(yè)的人士提出的。
Peer-to-peer or marketplace lenders — online platforms that match lenders with borrowers — are one of several upstart fraternities that believe they can steadily chip away at many of the banking industry’s longstanding functions.
個(gè)人對(duì)個(gè)人(P2P)或市場(chǎng)貸款機(jī)構(gòu)(將貸款人與借款人匹配的在線平臺(tái))是幾個(gè)新貴群體之一，它們認(rèn)為自己可以穩(wěn)定侵蝕掉銀行業(yè)的許多歷史悠久的職能。
“Clearly banks are under attack on multiple fronts,” says Renaud Laplanche, chief executive of the world’s biggest P2P platform, San Francisco-based Lending Club. “In credit, there is market-based lending. In payments, PayPal is [dominant]. In asset management, you have all the robo advisers. There is a massive competitive threat from tech companies.”
“顯然，銀行正在多個(gè)方面遭遇圍攻，”全球最大P2P貸款平臺(tái)、總部位于舊金山的貸款俱樂部(Lending Club)的首席執(zhí)行官雷諾拉普朗什(Renaud Laplanche)表示，“在信貸領(lǐng)域，出現(xiàn)了基于市場(chǎng)的貸款。在支付領(lǐng)域，PayPal(占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位)。在資產(chǎn)管理領(lǐng)域，出現(xiàn)了機(jī)器人顧問。銀行面臨來(lái)自科技公司的大規(guī)模競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅。”
The main advantage new challengers have, says Mr Laplanche, is straightforward: they are unencumbered by old expensive systems, and new regulatory overheads. “Our operating cost is 2 per cent of assets compared with 7 per cent at a typical bank,” he says.
拉普朗什表示，新的挑戰(zhàn)者具備的主要優(yōu)勢(shì)簡(jiǎn)單明了：它們不受成本高昂的舊系統(tǒng)以及新的監(jiān)管費(fèi)用的阻礙。他表示：“我們的營(yíng)運(yùn)成本為資產(chǎn)的2%，而銀行平均為7%。”
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